If you think military incompetence on the scale of Trump and Hegseth is something new, think again. If you think their hubris driven non-strategy might somehow succeed, think again. If you think the slide toward mob rule and despotism can’t happen here, think again. Polybius (201-117 BC) was already on to them nearly 2200 years ago…
Iran, What Polybius Would Have Done:
“There are three methods followed by those who wish to arrive at an intelligent knowledge of tactics. The first is by the study of history, the second by the use of scientific treatises composed by specialists, the third by actual experience on the field.” -Polybius The Histories. Bk 11 section 8.
Hannibal correctly judges the character of Flaminius:
“it is mere blind ignorance to believe that there can be anything of more vital importance to a general than the knowledge of his opponent’s character and disposition, —so must a commander of an army look out for the weak place, not in the body, but in the mind of the leader of the hostile force. For it has often happened before, that from mere idleness and lack of energy, men have let not only the welfare of the state, but even their private fortunes fall to ruin: some are so addicted to wine that they cannot sleep without bemusing their intellects with drink; and others so infatuated in their pursuit of sensual pleasures, that they have not only been the ruin of their cities and fortunes, but have forfeited life itself with disgrace. In the case of individuals, however, cowardice and sloth bring shame only on themselves; but when it is a commander-in-chief that is concerned, the disaster affects all alike and is of the most fatal consequence. It not only infects the men under him with an inactivity like his own; but it often brings absolute dangers of the most serious description upon those who trust such a general. For rashness, temerity, and uncalculating impetuosity, as well as foolish ambition and vanity, give an easy victory to the enemy, and are the source of numerous dangers to one’s friends: for a man who is the prey of such weaknesses falls the easiest victim to every stratagem, ambush or ruse. The general then who can gain a clear idea of his opponent’s weaknesses, and direct his attack on the point where he is most open to it, will very soon be the victor in the campaign. For as a ship, if you deprive it of its steerer, falls with all its crew into the hands of the enemy; so, in the case of an army in war, if you outwit or out-manœuvre its general, the whole will often fall into your hands.” – Polybius The Histories. Bk 3 section 81.
The Trump/Hegseth combine eerily fits the description of Flaminius, whose naked ambition and vainglory Hannibal masterfully manipulated. “The general then who can gain a clear idea of his opponent’s weaknesses, and direct his attack on the point where he is most open to it (Strait of Hormuz, U.S. bases and allies in Gulf, U.S. public opinion), will very soon be the victor.” The Iranians appear to have followed Polybius’ advice closely and as such have achieved similar results, at least politically.
Note: on June 24, 217 BC, during the Battle of Lake Trasimene in the Second Punic War Flaminius was ambushed and killed along with most of his legions by the Carthaginian army led by Hannibal.
The Gaul Ducar beheads the Roman general Flaminius in the Battle of Lake Trasimeno. 1882. by Joseph-Noël Sylvestre (Musée des Beaux-Arts, Béziers) / Musée des Beaux-Arts de Béziers.
The Necessity of Caution in Dealing With an Enemy:
“The conclusion, then, is that those who put themselves in the power of the enemy from want of proper precaution deserve blame; but those who use every practicable precaution not so: for to trust absolutely no one is to make all action impossible; but reasonable action, taken after receiving adequate security, cannot be censured. Adequate securities are oaths, children, wives, and, strongest of all, a blameless past. To be betrayed and entrapped by such a security as any of these is a slur, not on the deceived, but on the deceiver. The first object then should be to seek such securities as it is impossible for the recipient of the confidence to evade; but since such are rare, the next best thing will be to take every reasonable precaution one’s self: and then, if we meet with any disaster, we shall at least be acquitted of wrong conduct by the lookers on. And this has been the case with many before now: of which the most conspicuous example, and the one nearest to the times on which we are engaged, will be the fate of Achaeus. He omitted no possible precaution for securing his safety, but thought of everything that it was possible for human ingenuity to conceive: and yet he fell into the power of his enemies. In this instance his misfortune procured the pity and pardon of the outside world for the victim, and nothing but disparagement and loathing for the successful perpetrators….” -Polybius The Histories. Bk 8 Section 2
“Thus Achaeus, in spite of having taken every reasonable precaution, lost his life by the perfidy of those in whom he trusted. His fate may teach posterity two useful lessons,—not to put faith in any one lightly; and not to be over-confident in the hour of prosperity, knowing that, in human affairs, there is no accident which we may not expect… -Polybius The Histories. Bk 8 Section 23
Let’s see how the Trump administration fared in terms of Polybius’ rules above:
Beginning the war with an overwhelming advantage of military force…
- Trump has left the US “in the power of the enemy from want of proper precaution.” Militarily, by making the same mistake that his predecessor’s made in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, ie. an over reliance on air power. Knowing full well that the country has no stomach for ground troops these amateurs still walked right into the same old self deluded trap. Politically, by failing to recognize, either through ignorance or hubris, that their strategy had several single points of failure, the biggest choke point being the Straight of Hormuz. After surviving the initial sucker punch, the Iranians got to their feet and promptly shut down that transit point vital to world commerce, putting the political pressure back on Trump, who never really had time on his side to begin with.
- “But reasonable action, taken after receiving adequate security, cannot be censured. Adequate securities are oaths, children, wives, and, strongest of all, a blameless past.” We at one time had an adequate security oath (JCPOA), at least it was more adequate and less harmful to our interests than the capitulation MOU, but Trump tore it up. We certainly don’t have anything close to a blameless past in the region, beginning with our role in the 1953 coup that overthrew Mohammad Mosaddegh and the subsequent installment of the Shah of Iran in his place. Our actions in the region ever since can be described as controversial, to put it mildly.
- “He omitted no possible precaution for securing his safety, but thought of everything that it was possible for human ingenuity to conceive: and yet he fell into the power of his enemies. In this instance his misfortune procured the pity and pardon of the outside world for the victim…” Trump ignored warnings from pretty much the entire foreign policy establishment (not affiliated with Fox News) and threw in his/our lot with Bibi Netanyahu exclusively. He then failed to get buy-in from either our allies or congress before launching the ill-fated debacle. When the thing went south on him, he pleaded to no avail for the allies to rescue him, and now that he has surrendered, that is, we have surrendered, he flails wildly on X and TV at the lookers on that refuse to buy into his hastily concocted false narrative of victory.
- “Thus Achaeus… lost his life by the perfidy of those in whom he trusted.”
The famous Prussian military theorist Carl von Clausewitz wrote in his foundational treatise On War that “War is the continuation of politics (policy) by other means.” The dictum defines war as a political instrument meant to achieve specific national or state objectives. This entry-level military strategy has been taught across the globe to those attending officer training schools since its coinage in 1832. One doubts that it is also taught to aspiring Fox News anchors. Therefore, to win a war means changing the politics of the enemy such that they must surrender. That is precisely what Iran just did to the United States.
Tetradrachm of Achaeus, minted around 220-214 BC
“In private life if you wish to satisfy yourself as to the badness or goodness of particular persons, you would not, if you wish to get a genuine test, examine their conduct at a time of uneventful repose, but in the hour of brilliant success or conspicuous reverse. For the true test of a perfect man is the power of bearing with spirit and dignity violent changes of fortune.”-Polybius The Histories. Bk 6 Preface
In American history George Washington and Abraham Lincoln can be considered to be the greatest examples of this rule, along with FDR (IMO). Trump on the other hand, has done nothing but fail miserably during “violent changes of fortune”- covid, 2020 election and denial, Jan 6 insurrection and pardons, and now the Iran catastrophe- his vanity, corruption, racism and jealousy knows no bounds. Trump has floated the idea of adding his face to Mount Rushmore alongside Washington and Lincoln. Even more disturbing is his threatened arch worthy of Mussolini directly blocking the view between the Lincoln Memorial and Arlington National Cemetery. Arlington National Cemetery was established on 13 May 1864, during the Civil War after Arlington Estate, the land on which the cemetery was built, was confiscated by the federal government from the private ownership of Confederate general Robert E. Lee. The selection of the location for the Lincoln memorial, with its view of the cemetery and Lee’s Arlington House was explicitly promoted as a vehicle for national reconciliation. To Trump no doubt it is a symbol of Lincoln looking down on Lee, and by association, the Confederacy. Far from “bearing with spirit and dignity,” MAGA’s raison d’etre is the severance of national reconciliation.
Notice also that in his circular cycle of regimes Polybius emphasizes “the violation of women or the forcible appropriation of boys” in the transition from aristocracy to oligarchy. MAGA is clearly engaged in verbal and physical violence toward women while simultaneously working to strip them of their rights; the covering up of pedophilia by it’s leaders and members, and the protection and pardoning of child rapists, is also a prominent feature of the movement’s resume.
On Trump’s 80th Birthday: Nothing says “decline of civilization” like gladiator fights at the capitol for the emperor’s amusement, while simultaneously losing a war at the frontier.
State of the U.S. Capitol as we approach July 4th, 2026 (250th Birthday):
Reuters Photo/Aaron Schwartz
Reuters Photo/Aaron Schwartz
Photo: Alex Kent/The New York Times
And who can forget these greatest hits from the past:
Photo Credits:
1. John Minchillo/AP
2. Jose Luis Magana/AP
3. J. Scott Applewhite/AP
4. Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
5. Shannon Stapleton/Reuters
6. Leah Millis/Reuters
7. Joseph Prezioso/AFP/Getty Images
8. NurPhoto/Getty Images
9. Win McNamee/Getty Images
“For our history now descends from a kingdom of gold to one of iron and rust.” ~Cassius Dio upon the death of Marcus Aurelius and the ascent of Commodus.
A marble bust of Roman emperor Commodus as the hero of Greek mythology Hercules, c. 190-2 CE. (The Capitoline Museums, Rome). Photograph by Mark Cartwright
https://www.worldhistory.org/commodus
See Also:
Parallel Narratives 